a customer retention science tool.
THE GAME APPLICATIONS THE CREATORS WHAT'S NEW? DOWNLOAD MAKE CONTACT
Your fortune teller for predicting the future of deregulated markets |
The purchase price for Autopilot 3.6 on a 4 gigabyte memory stick is $50 + $2 shipping cost within the United States. (Purchasers from Indiana must pay the 6% state sales tax, bringing the total to $55.) Your memory stick purchase includes the game, four audiovisual tutorials, a slide description notebook, and a conference paper (all detailed on the left side of this page). DH&A offers a money back guarantee or product exchange if a memory stick proves defective. If either proves necessary, please visit our contact page for communication options. *BEFORE YOU ORDER, NOTE:* If your billing address and shipping address are the same, it is not necessary to enter this information twice on the form. If you are ordering from outside the U.S., do not purchase from this web page. Make contact with Dan Hamblin by telephone or email to receive a price quotation including shipping. If you would like more information before ordering, please visit our contact page. We would love to talk to you. 
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The first three tutorials describe Level 2 prior to Autopilot and the fourth describes Autopilot: Your Market, Your Choices describes the player’s role playing for batting average in game simulations. We say that batting average is indicative of how good your best idea is. By this we mean that the higher your batting average is, the lower the risk is - because shadowprice.com is a game about risk. Making Money tells how shadowprice.com’s Value (Profit) Optimizer tries to make money for you, and for every other competitor. Surviving the Year describes how shadowprice.com uses batting average as a risk metric, and discloses some preliminary findings regarding who wins and who loses in deregulated/ privatized household electricity retailing. The Winter Simulation Conference paper you can download in .pdf format extends and refines those findings. Running on Autopilot describes the new features of Level 2 Version 3, and how to use portfolio transitivity tests to discover the best thing to do in particular situations. (Accompanying the first three tutorials is a Background by Slide Number notebook which gives more information, including password keys No. 1 and 2.) In addition to the tutorials your purchase includes another audiovisual featuring an augmented-with-Autopilot version of the San Diego Winter 2002 Simulation Conference presentation leading off by contrasting results of 90-game Autopilot simulations with and without fixed or flat rates in the player's price/product portfolio. The presentation also tells how a Monte Carlo drawing can be random but not representative, and why this matters; and how shadowprice.com bends its topology space to depict Cournot competitors in a Bertrand market. While we encourage learning by doing, listening to
and viewing the tutorials should make learning by doing less exasperating
and more fun. The four tutorials and 2002 Winter Simulation Conference presentation show the evolution of a product in screen design, simulation capabilities, competitor and market performance diagnostics. Please feel free to disregard instructions in the first three tutorials to print this or that report for every series game. You may want to print and peruse these reports a time or two, as well as two reports giving Starting and Optimized Values available only from the local bus (which "makes all stops"). The first focuses on quantities -- market shares, customer retention and growth, base load and peak energy use. The second focuses on the balance sheet -- prices charged, costs incurred, advertising spots, profit for one and all. Both provide details by service provider and month of the year.
Subsequently, you will find that Autopilot summarizes competitor and market performance diagnostics in just two reports -- the "Batting Average Report" and "Player Margins and Landings" -- printable after game 45 or 90 of a series. After viewing the "Batting Average Chart" and seeing a blip where you least expected it, you may also print the cumulative diagnostics in these reports up to the series game in which the blip occurred. As well as, to any other series game! Autopilot also provides access to "Initial Conditions" and "Profit Optimizer" reports giving individual game details for any or all games of a series, should you want to inspect the nitty gritty.
Our product continues to evolve, making the tutorials and presentation informative but not conclusive. For example, Autopilot now runs a single game price peace (or price war in which "competitors assume the competition will lower price" from the getgo) in about 2 minutes on a Pentium 4 2.2 Gigahertz platform. Autopilot repetitions now allow you to test the impact of restricting the incumbent from making retail price offers below cost, as well as changing automated selection rules for anticipated mergers or leader-follower behaviors and your portfolio's price/product attributes.
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